Magic words

A mixed bag of economic news, plus a reflection on Mario Vargas Llosa and Mexico

Welcome to The Mexpatriate.

In today’s edition I cover reactions to the death of Mario Vargas Llosa in the national conversation, as well as the return of a species to Chiapas, the arrival of a popular U.S. food chain in Mexico and a DIY forensic kit. But first, a quick recap of this week’s economic news.

On April 22, the IMF published an updated outlook for 2025, predicting the Mexican economy will shrink by 0.3% this year (in January, the fund had forecast growth of 1.4%). The World Bank expects 0% growth in Mexico this year. While President Sheinbaum has responded that public spending will help prevent this economic backslide, as of early April, Mexico’s finance ministry had also reduced its earlier rosier estimates down to 1.5%-2.3% GDP growth this year.

But today brought some positive news: data from INEGI indicates Mexico’s economy grew 1% in monthly terms in February, the strongest month-over-month growth recorded since April 2023. Manufacturing and construction led the way, followed by primary sector industries (agriculture, mining). The statistics agency also adjusted its January growth data upward to 0.15%, from the previous -0.16% estimate. While this data is better than analysts expected, they are still mostly pessimistic about the coming slowdown.

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