Welcome to The Mexpatriate.
After Venezuela’s opposition leader-in-hiding María Corina Machado was awarded the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize on Oct. 10 “for her tireless work promoting democratic rights for the people of Venezuela,” the reaction in Latin America was more tepid than elsewhere—not least because of her decision to dedicate the award not only to the people of Venezuela, but also to wannabe recipient President Donald Trump.
When asked for her take on Machado’s prize, President Claudia Sheinbaum answered airily that “we have always talked of the sovereignty and self-determination of peoples” and when questioned again, responded with “sin comentarios.”
Her silence has stirred up a lot of noise in the national conversation. The Mexican government initially joined Brazil and Colombia in demanding transparency from President Nicolás Maduro after the widely criticized 2024 election in Venezuela, but has since returned to a hands-off approach (Mexico sent a representative to Maduro’s inauguration ceremony in January).
For conservative critics, Sheinbaum’s lack of support for Machado is a disgrace. “‘No comment’ is not a position of indifference. It is taking the side of the Venezuelan dictatorship, and against its democratic opposition,” wrote author and commentator Héctor Aguilar Camín. For the left, the context of Machado’s recognition and her deference to Trump as he escalates talk of war have “transformed peace into a tool of interventionism.”
Meanwhile, the potential return of U.S.-led regime change in the region looms. Trump confirmed on Oct. 16 that he has authorized covert CIA operations in Venezuela and the next day, two survivors of a sixth U.S. strike on a Venezuelan boat in the Caribbean were detained. Trump has flirted with the idea of a ground invasion, though this seems a remote possibility.
As Jon Lee Anderson wrote in The New Yorker:
“…Machado and her colleagues appear to be on board with Trump’s revival of the Monroe Doctrine and with old-fashioned Yankee gunboat diplomacy in a region where, for many decades, political leaders of all stripes have sought to present themselves as defenders of Latin America’s economic and political sovereignty.”
The tragic hollowing out of Venezuela under Maduro is undeniable (nearly eight million citizens have fled since 2014), as are the historical failures of U.S. intervention in the region. Machado would be a deserving Nobel laureate indeed if she can successfully navigate these dangerous currents, but this is yet to be seen.
A few other brief highlights from this week:
A national labor stoppage by SAT (tax authority) workers came to an end on Oct. 15 after two days. As the government has escalated tax collection and also cut staff, workers claim the agency is stretched thin and that their salaries didn’t increase as required by law at the beginning of the year. Tax revenue is up 6.5% annually in real terms from January through August this year and the government is aiming to raise it another nearly 6% in 2026.
Lawyer David Cohen Sacal was gunned down in Mexico City on Oct. 13 in broad daylight, on the steps of a city courthouse, flanked by two bodyguards. The 18 year-old hitman was caught shortly after the murder, but who hired him and why is still unclear. Cohen (described by colleagues as having “elastic ethics”) worked in both business and family law, and one of his high-profile clients was Guillermo “Billy” Álvarez, a partner in the scandal-plagued Cruz Azul cement company (and soccer team owner). Álvarez was arrested earlier this year on charges of fraud and organized crime.
A study conducted by two U.S. universities and published this week showed “a shockingly large amount of sensitive traffic is being broadcast unencrypted,” and in their research, much of it was being transmitted by government agencies and private companies in Mexico via satellite. Using equipment that cost about US $600, the researchers were able to observe data transmitted by the military and other government agencies, cellular phone service providers and several large banks. This is not a uniquely Mexican problem: the study emphasizes the vulnerability of all GEO satellites to hackers if data is left unencrypted. On Oct. 17, the army secretary General Ricardo Trevilla admitted that the “Guacamaya leaks” of 2022 were the result of “human error” and that the reams of data exposed by hackers had been unencrypted; Trevilla said this won’t happen again and claimed all defense communications are now encrypted.
In today’s free newsletter, I cover the aftermath of the massive flooding in central-eastern Mexico, the bilateral U.S.-Mexico “Mission Firewall” initiative, the debates over taxes and Electrolit, plus Shakespeare performed by prisoners, a new species of firefly and a restaurant lost at sea in the Odds and Ends section.
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Disaster management
Mixing politicians and natural disasters can sometimes be…disastrous.
Governor Rocío Nahle (Morena) of Veracruz—already afflicted by a tendency to downplay terrible events with euphemisms—said the Cazones river in Poza Rica had only “slightly” overflowed as torrential rainstorms lashed the northern part of her state for four days last week, causing deadly flooding and landslides. Tropical Storm Raymond, following closely on the heels of Hurricane Priscilla on the Pacific coast, also wreaked havoc in the states of Puebla, Hidalgo, San Luis Potosí and Querétaro, though Veracruz has the highest death toll—34 of the 76 victims as of writing (39 people are still missing). This same region was devastated by floods in 1999, when three dams broke and 400 people were killed.
When Nahle visited Poza Rica with President Sheinbaum on Oct. 12, residents shouted “We don’t want the governor here!” Sheinbaum has defended Nahle and the other governors, accusing critics of behaving like “vultures” in a “search for who is to blame.” However, she herself questioned the response of the local government when visiting Huachinango, Puebla, where 487 mm (19 inches) of rain fell in 72 hours. “You tell me you are working,” she said to the mayor. “…but the people tell me that isn’t true. And honestly, I prefer to believe the people.”
While Sheinbaum had announced a new national emergency mobile phone alert system as a more agile response to disasters including hurricanes, earthquakes and floods in September, it wasn’t activated in response to these storms. The president told reporters at her Oct. 13 presser that no meteorological data indicated that the rains would be “of such intensity,” making it difficult to enact preventive measures. These storms also occurred in the context of a very wet rainy season, with many reservoirs and rivers already at full capacity.
News outlets have reported as many as 100,000 homes in the region have been damaged and residents in some areas went for 72 hours without any power or assistance. Recurring themes in coverage about the vulnerability of the areas most affected by the flooding include a lack of urban planning, “irregular” construction and outdated local disaster preparedness.
The federal government has deployed over 10,000 members of the military and National Guard to the affected states, as well as 3,000 “servidores de la nación” who are tasked with creating a census of the damages (so far, they’ve registered 13,377 damaged homes).
Collection centers for donations, both public and private, have sprung up nationwide—you can find official drop-off sites here as well as a list of the items needed.
A farewell to (illegal) arms?
The high-level bilateral security group established during Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s visit to Mexico City last month held its first meeting on Sept. 26, and the main takeaway was a new initiative dubbed “Mission Firewall.” The U.S. State Department describes it as an “ambitious bilateral effort to combat illicit firearms trafficking,” adding that “the U.S. will increase inspections and coordination with Mexico to combat the southbound flow of firearms.” The initiative also says that there will be increased bilateral intelligence sharing and the expansion of eTrace, a firearm trace request system developed by the ATF, to all 32 Mexican states.
How much of this is really new or ambitious?
Over 70% of guns seized by law enforcement in Mexico come from the U.S., where they are often purchased legally in bulk by “straw” buyers (people who wouldn’t raise any red flags on a background check). Guns are used in the vast majority of homicides in Mexico; the number of assault rifles recovered from crime scenes in the country increased by 300% in the decade between 2004—the year a U.S. ban on assault rifles expired—and 2014.
During the Biden administration, the ATF implemented “Operation Southbound,” which also emphasized increased inspections at the border and ballistics tracing—in fact, the expansion of eTrace was already slated to happen by 2026. According to the ATF, the operation saw a 40% increase in investigations of firearms trafficking and 11% increase in seizures from 2020-2024; over 2,600 firearms heading for Mexico were seized in 2023. The Trump administration may be delivering better results so far: the ATF reported seizures of 9,700 weapons headed for Mexico between January and May.
While data weapons trafficking from the U.S. to Mexico is hard to pin down, one 2013 study estimated as many as 200,000 weapons are smuggled over the border every year.
During AMLO’s term, the Mexican government attempted a creative legal tactic to bring attention to the illegal trafficking issue by filing lawsuits against some U.S. gun manufacturers and gun stores. The suit against gun manufacturers was dismissed by the U.S. Supreme Court in June; the other suit filed in 2022 is still alive, but gasping for air.
The designation of Mexican drug cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs) by Trump opened up another pathway to harsher sentences for gun traffickers. However, this hasn’t gotten much traction so far. The first U.S. indictment for providing material support, including illegal weapons, to a drug cartel designated as a terrorist organization was unsealed earlier this year. The suspect, María del Rosario Navarro Sánchez, and her co-defendants (all Mexican nationals) are charged with straw purchasing and trafficking in firearms for the CJNG, among other charges. A federal judge in Mexico halted Navarro’s extradition to the United States in May.
No hydration without taxation
Isotonic beverages mimic the composition of human blood and are designed to restore electrolyte balance—which can be lifesaving. When Laboratorios PiSA first started manufacturing Electrolit in 1950, Mexico was suffering a cholera outbreak and the pharmaceutical company (which specialized in pediatric medicines) initially formulated the “suero” to treat dehydration in children. Their product has since become a staple in Mexico for athletes, the sick and the hungover. And it’s a profitable market—the electrolyte drink and supplement business is worth an estimated US $38 billion worldwide and is expected to reach US $66 billion by 2032 (we seem to get more obsessed with staying hydrated the more sedentary we become).
Electrolit started making national headlines a few weeks ago, in a peculiar story combining tax regulation, influencers and a government grudge. The ruling party is leaving no stone unturned in the search for tax revenue—well, except the boulder of broad tax reform. Federal Morena and coalition lawmakers proposed earlier this month removing the tax exemption for some oral rehydration solutions (ORS) currently categorized as medicinal. Their argument is that these are sugary soft drinks masquerading as health products (Electrolit contains more glucose than the WHO recommendation). Also, they asserted that by charging the same taxes as those on soft drinks, the government could collect up to 3.5 billion pesos in revenue per year.
“In the national market, we’ve found abuse of the medicinal category for various electrolyte beverages with high levels of sugar,” said Ernesto Núñez, a green party (PVEM) deputy. “...They’ve been registered this way to avoid the warning labels and to not incur IVA, which gives them a competitive advantage over other sugary beverages.”
Meanwhile, hyperbolic anti-Electrolit posts on TikTok and other social media platforms began circulating—some medical influencers implied it was dangerous, others that it shouldn’t be available without a prescription. Then Mr. Doctor (who has over three million subscribers on YouTube) called out a paid smear campaign against Electrolit, claiming he had been offered 48,000 pesos to create content criticizing the product.
To thicken the plot, there is a history of bad blood between Laboratorios PiSA and the government that started during López Obrador’s administration. The pharmaceutical company was accused of anti-competitive practices and in 2019, the health authorities shut down several of their plants alleging there was bacterial contamination. However, the dependency of the public health system on this and a handful of other pharmaceutical companies soon became acutely apparent as drug shortages escalated in 2020. AMLO laid the blame on the companies, accusing them of “blackmailing” his administration. Despite the animosity, PiSA continues to be a major supplier for the public health system and has won nearly US $1 billion in government contracts this year.
On Oct. 17, the Chamber of Deputies approved the federal budget for 2026 with added taxes for some rehydration beverages (likely including Electrolit), increased taxes on soft drinks and tobacco and a new tax on violent video games.
Odds and Ends
Shakespeare behind bars: A group of 27 inmates from a León prison are making history by participating in the International Cervantino Festival (FIC) in Guanajuato this week with an adaptation of Willam Shakespeare’s Othello. In addition to the all-male cast, 60 other inmates were involved in the production, making all the sets, the costumes and building a stage on the prison basketball court where their fellow inmates became their audience. “Theatre cultivates discipline,” said the state director of prisons to AM newspaper. “It’s a way of incorporating culture as part of reintegration.” To the inmates’ surprise, Governor Libia Dennise García attended one of their performances in the prison; she said she was so enthralled by the performance, she forgot where she was.
A light in the darkness: A new species of firefly was discovered in Mexico’s vast urban jungle, the Bosque de Chapultepec, in September 2024 (bringing the number of species that live in the metropolis to 17). On Oct. 15, the species was finally baptized with a name chosen by popular vote from a selection of Mexican women “who have illuminated the history of Mexico”: Photinus mariasabinae, in honor of the revered Mazatec curandera, María Sabina. Fireflies have been declining in numbers all over the world, affected by light pollution and deforestation, including in Mexico, which is home to a rich—still being discovered—biodiversity of these bioluminescent beetles.
Would you like seaweed with that?: A video taken by fisherman in the Gulf of Mexico showing what appears to be a house floating on the open ocean went viral this week. But the structure was actually part of a popular dockside seafood restaurant called “El Atracadero” that opened in Tuxpan, Veracruz in 1979 and that was swept out to sea on Oct. 10 as torrential rains pounded the state. Another part of the restaurant was spotted from the beaches of Coatzacoalcos, which is over 500 kilometers south of Tuxpan.
The Mexpat Stat
Over 1 million tickets…
…to attend the FIFA World Cup 2026 were purchased in the first presale round by fans from 212 countries. The first tri-lateral cup will open on June 11, 2026 in Mexico City and games will be hosted in 16 cities across North America.
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