Out of the frying pan, into the fire
Are we missing 2025 yet?
Welcome to the first 2026 edition of The Mexpatriate…and last rites for the post-World War II global order.
Mexico’s year got off to a shaky start (literally) with a 6.5 magnitude earthquake in Guerrero on Jan. 2 that was felt across central and southern states, including in Mexico City. Two deaths were reported and the damages in Acapulco—where President Sheinbaum had just spent Christmas vacation—left 400,000 residents without running water for days.
The following morning brought a geopolitical tectonic plate shift, and gave a new meaning to “Mexico could be the next Venezuela.” Once the ominous refrain of Mexican conservatives who equated AMLO to Hugo Chávez and a descent into economic ruin, as of Jan. 3 it brings the specter of U.S. military intervention into the national conversation.
Trump’s characteristically belligerent and ambiguous assertion that the U.S. would “run” the country after violently extracting President Nicolás Maduro and his wife initially led to speculation about regime change, but what has emerged instead is something both new and old-fashioned: a naked display of power, and a resource grab (away from China and Russia). This isn’t making the world “safe for democracy,” as the Venezuelan opposition that has been lobbying the Trump administration to remove Maduro is rather rudely discovering (even as María Corina Machado offers to share custody of the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize). The regime—for now—remains.
Sheinbaum has reiterated at nearly every mañanera since Maduro’s capture that her government rejects the U.S. action and insists on the principle of sovereignty. On Monday, after a 15-minute phone conversation with Trump, she confirmed that the two countries will continue to deepen collaboration on security issues, and that U.S. military intervention here has been ruled out. U.S. Ambassador Ronald Johnson echoed statements last year by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, saying that Mexico and the U.S. currently have “the most cooperative and mutually beneficial relationship in decades.” Trump’s rhetoric about Mexico and Venezuela may be similar, but the calculus for U.S. interests here is radically different.
Meanwhile, the opposition to Morena has mostly come out in support of Maduro’s removal from power. The National Action Party (PAN) issued a statement expressing solidarity with the Venezuelan people, condemning the “narco-tyranny” of Nicolás Maduro, and avoiding any condemnation—or reference to—the U.S. military incursion. A statement from Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) federal legislators warned that any government that “tramples the rule of law, destroys institutions, disrespects democracy and freedoms and clings to power” must not endure, which makes the fall of Maduro a “lesson for the region”—at least below the Rio Bravo, apparently. The only opposition party that condemned Trump’s decapitation of the Maduro regime is Movimiento Ciudadano (MC). According to a poll last week by El Financiero, 48% of Mexicans expressed a negative opinion of the U.S. intervention, and 38% had a favorable opinion.
“Those who seek outside intervention are those who lack internal strength, they depend on others to be able to secure their influence in the country, ” responded Sheinbaum on Tuesday. “Whatever the issues is, we Mexicans are capable of resolving it.”
In today’s newsletter, I cover two end-of-2025 news stories: the Interoceanic Train accident and stats about poverty reduction. Below the paywall, you’ll find my thoughts on what we’ll hear more about in the national conversation in 2026—I’ll have my list of what we’ll hear less about in the Friday edition.
Starting this week, subscribers will receive The Mexpatriate on Wednesdays and Fridays, plus two episodes of The Mexpat Interview every month. If you have questions or comments, please email me at hola@themexpatriate.com. I’d love to hear from you.
Train wreck
On a curvy stretch of railway in Oaxaca—built over a century ago and restored as part of President López Obrador’s grand Interoceanic Train revival—two cars carrying 250 people derailed and plunged into a ravine on Dec. 28. The death toll as of today is 14, and nearly another 100 people were injured.
The passenger and freight railway that connects the Pacific and the Caribbean across the narrow Isthmus of Tehantepec, built and operated by the Mexican navy, was inaugurated in 2023. The freshly appointed federal attorney general, Ernestina Godoy—a close ally of Sheinbaum—has opened an investigation into the causes of the accident in collaboration with state law enforcement. Various media outlets have reported on federal audits going back to 2019 repeatedly expressing concerns about “inadequate control and supervision of the project.” One of the affected families filed a criminal suit against the contractors and public officials in charge of the train on Jan. 5.
As Sheinbaum plans to roll out 3,000 kilometers of additional passenger railway by 2030, this fatal accident inevitably puts her on the defensive—of her predecessor’s projects and of the military as an infrastructure operator. The navy has historically ranked as Mexico’s most trusted institution, but its reputation is becoming more tenuous. Admiral Raymundo Pedro Morales, who was in charge of the construction of the Interoceanic Train before Sheinbaum appointed him as Secretary of the Navy, already had to grapple with a major corruption scandal when a fuel smuggling network within the navy was busted in October.
This tragedy also echoes one of Sheinbaum’s toughest (and most criticized) moments as mayor of Mexico City: the Line 12 metro overpass collapse in May 2021 that left 27 people dead. Sheinbaum took issue with the independent investigation of the accident, and was accused of lack of transparency. The criminal cases brought against 10 ex-officials for negligence during the train’s construction have languished in court.
Collisions and derailments aren’t the only safety concern for trains. A few days after the Oaxaca accident, a freight train nearly derailed near Cortázar, Guanajuato. But this time it was intentional: criminals had sabotaged the track, planning to steal the cargo. The National Guard has stepped up its presence, but monitoring thousands of kilometers of railway will be another logistical challenge for the government.
What is “middle class” in Mexico?
The week before Christmas, President Sheinbaum gladly shared recent data on poverty reduction and the growth of the middle class since the beginning of the “Fourth Transformation.” According to World Bank data, Mexico led the region in upward economic mobility from 2018 to 2024, with more of the population defined as middle class (39.6%) than poor (21.7%) for the first time. This is cause for celebration, but how is “middle class” defined?
According to the World Bank, it means earning at least US $17 a day, or roughly 9,918 pesos a month (slightly below the 2026 minimum wage at today’s exchange rate). The latest price of the “canasta básica” of essential needs is 4,818 pesos per person per month in urban areas, meaning that a household categorized as “middle class” may earn just barely enough to survive.
Sheinbaum and Morena risk resting too comfortably on the laurels of AMLO’s admirable reduction in poverty and inequality; as the economy faces sluggish GDP growth, declining consumer confidence and more informal than formal employment, the government’s social welfare programs and minimum wage increases are still necessary, but not sufficient to keep elevating the quality of life for the average Mexican.