President(a)
The dawn of Sheinbaumismo
Welcome to a news roundup edition of The Mexpatriate.
“I am a mother, a grandmother, a scientist, a woman of faith and today, by the will of the people of Mexico, the constitutional president of the United Mexican States … for the first time, we women have come to lead the destiny of our beautiful nation.”
With these words, spoken minutes after taking the oath of office before Congress on Oct. 1, Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo conveyed both the struggles and the hopes of generations before her, as well as her own as an individual woman stepping into the most powerful position in the country.
In her first speech as presidenta, she expressed her gratitude not only for the women who have fought for this dream to become reality, but also for her mentor, outgoing President López Obrador, describing him as “the most beloved president” in Mexican history, “comparable only to Lázaro Cárdenas.” The day before, AMLO had choked up during his final mañanera and even though many have been skeptical of his retirement from national politics, little has been heard from the loquacious leader since he left Mexico City for the jungles of Chiapas—he really appears to have gone to “La Chingada,” at least for now.
On her first full day as president, Sheinbaum flew to Acapulco, which is yet again facing the twin horrors of natural disaster and a crisis of governance. While the “zombie” storm John—which first made landfall as a Category 3 hurricane, then drifted back out over the Pacific and returned five days later as a tropical storm—was not on the scale of last year’s Category 5 Hurricane Otis, at least 20 people were killed in the state, thousands were evacuated, and some are saying the damage is worse.
The area received a year’s worth of rain in a matter of days, which has caused roads and buildings to collapse. Acapulco is also suffering from extreme poverty and violence, which is nothing new in Guerrero, but is intensifying.
Last week, the shocking murder of the mayor of the state capital of Chilpancingo (his body was found inside a car with his head on the hood) splashed across national headlines. Alejandro Arcos Catalán (PAN-PRI-PRD) had said after his election that making deals or negotiating with criminal groups “was not viable.” Another high-ranking city official, Francisco Gonzalo Tapia, had been shot and killed just three days before.
The first 20 days of Sheinbaum
The early days of Sheinbaum’s sexenio have been headline-heavy, and it’s hard to detect signal in the noise at this stage. With this disclaimer in mind, here are some of the events and policy decisions of the initial weeks that I think are particularly noteworthy:
An official apology for the Tlatelolco massacre of 1968
Sheinbaum marked the Oct. 2 anniversary of the killing of hundreds of student protesters by the Mexican military in 1968 at her first mañanera with an official public recognition of the event as a crime against humanity. The weight of this massacre is heavy with Sheinbaum, who calls herself one of the “children of ‘68” (her parents participated in the movement) and received the presidential sash at her inauguration from a frail 94-year-old Ifigenia Martínez, an activist and academic at UNAM who was arrested in the turmoil and later became a founder of the PRD. Martínez died a few days after the inauguration. Meanwhile, the commission that was created at the beginning of AMLO’s term to investigate the crimes committed by the Mexican state during the “Dirty War” presented its final report on Oct. 10—with researchers frustrated by the lack of cooperation from the army.
The Mexican army shoots and kills migrants in Chiapas
On the night of Oct. 1, hours after Sheinbaum was sworn in, Mexican soldiers shot at vehicles carrying 33 migrants near Tapachula, Chiapas. The Department of National Defense (Sedena) appears to be classifying it as a case of mistaken identity—why they would shoot at a vehicle first and ask questions later hasn’t been fully clarified (the vehicles were reportedly evading their patrol), though the soldiers involved have been arrested. Six people were killed (from Egypt, El Salvador and Peru), including an 11-year-old boy, and at least ten more were injured. Their diverse nationalities point to southern Mexico’s significance as a global hub for migrants trying to make their way to the United States. Tapachula has been dubbed “detention city” because of the thousands of migrants stranded there while awaiting documentation to either stay in Mexico or find their way north. Sheinbaum said “a situation like this can’t be repeated” and promised a full investigation.
Security strategy focused on priority regions
On Oct. 8, Sheinbaum and her secretary of public security, Omar García Harfuch, announced their plan for tackling crime. It aligns with similar strategies that this pair put into place in Mexico City during Sheinbaum’s tenure as mayor—such as attention to “root causes,” improved police investigative resources and intelligence gathering—which yielded positive results in reducing homicides. However, there is a major manpower problem that starkly contrasts with the case of CDMX: in the high-crime areas that are targeted in the initial 100-day-plan (parts of Jalisco, Guanajuato, Colima, Baja California, Chihuahua, Guerrero, Michoacán and Chiapas) the number of police on the ground is much lower than in the capital. Still, putting out the biggest fires first seems like a reasonable beginning. You can read my deep dive on security policy, particularly the “hugs, not bullets” strategy, here.
Pushing for a Mexican EV
Much has been made of Sheinbaum’s background as a scientist, and with her decision to create a new federal science, technology and innovation department it appears this will indeed be a hallmark of her administration. In her 100 commitments speech on Inauguration Day, she promised “we will make Mexico a science and innovation power.” One of these projects is for Mexico to develop its own affordable electric vehicle (dubbed the Olinia, which means “to move” in Nahuatl), which Sheinbaum said last week will be manufactured in Sonora. Could Mexico actually become a hub of research and development, not just manufacturing? While there is political goodwill, it will require a lot more than that to catalyze technological innovation—starting with an expansion of higher education and capital. Today, Mexico ranks 55th of 133 countries on the Global Innovation Index—and is third in Latin America, coming in behind Brazil and Chile.
“Your investments are safe in Mexico”
On Oct. 15, Sheinbaum and her Secretary of Economy, Marcelo Ebrard, attended the United States-Mexico CEO Dialogue meeting in what has been seen as an attempt to placate frazzled investors who were critical of the express-approval of Morena’s sweeping judicial reform bill. Both the presidenta and Ebrard told the 240 business leaders that investments are “safe” in Mexico, and pointed to significant prospective FDI for 2025. However, much of the US $20 billion worth of projects they mentioned had been previously announced (prior to the approval of the judicial reform). While some of the CEOs in attendance praised Sheinbaum’s efforts—Sarah Bairstow of Mexico Pacific said “we’ve had a wonderfully constructive dialogue here today”—it remains to be seen whether the faucet of foreign investment will continue to flow.
The Guanajuato front
Guanajuato is a medium-size state with craggy borders, nestled in the geographical center and colonial “heart” of Mexico, its picturesque cities marked by the legacy of Spanish rule—and the rebellion against it, as the birthplace of Mexican independence.
The state is a tourism magnet, as well as an agricultural “breadbasket” but neither industry appears to adequately meet the needs of its population of 6.1 million. Guanajuato was the largest recipient of remittances from abroad in 2023 (US $5.4 billion), with many guanajuatenses leaving behind their families to work up north. Per capita income in the state dropped 3.9% from Q1 to Q2 this year according to federal data, and the percentage of “working poor” is on the rise (in contrast to the national trend).
Guanajuato is also one of five high-priority states in the Sheinbaum administration’s first 100-day security strategy, and the only one with two cities on the list for immediate attention, León and Celaya. In 2023, it was the state with the highest total number of homicides in Mexico and it’s been in the lead much of this year as well—according to the Causa en Común database, it’s also the state with the highest number of police murders, with 42 this year to date.
While the bloody fracturing of the Sinaloa Cartel in the north and the escalation of violence in the south (Chiapas, Guerrero) have garnered a lot of media attention, the chronic and worsening violence in Guanajuato seems less a part of the national conversation.
However, within the first 10 days of a new government taking office this month, 139 people were murdered in Guanajuato (from Sept. 30-Oct. 10), with a shocking 32 killings in a 24-hour period on Oct. 3. For context, consider that the intra-cartel violence in Sinaloa has claimed an estimated 125 lives since the end of August.
One of the cities that saw the most homicides in this wave was Salamanca (pop. 160,680), where four people were killed in an attack on an underground addiction recovery center (known as an “anexo”) and 12 more bodies were discovered two days later. There have been attacks on homes and bars in Celaya, León and Irapuato as well.
Why is Guanajuato under siege?
In September, then-federal public security secretary and now secretary of the interior, Rosa Icela Rodríguez, caused a ripple of controversy when she offered a diagnosis of the ongoing violence in the state that blamed neoliberal economic policies and an alleged alliance between the PAN and an ultra-right secret society (El Yunque), along with more conventional ills such as cartel turf wars. Guanajuato is one of the few states that isn’t governed by Morena and has been a bastion of the conservative PAN for decades. While some of the feds’ conclusions read as partisan, Rodríguez also noted the long tenure of the two most important people in Guanajuato’s security apparatus—the public security secretary, Álvar Cabeza de Vaca Appendini (12 years in office) and the attorney general, Carlos Zamarripa Aguirre (nearly 16 years).
The first woman to govern Guanajuato, Libia Denisse García (PAN), made a campaign promise to remove these two officials from power if elected—Cabeza de Vaca left his post in September, and Zamarripa presented his resignation last month as well, though he will remain in office until January.
Interestingly, García spearheaded a modification to the state constitution to allow non-Mexican born citizens to assume the post of attorney general. The reform also eliminates the requirement of having been resident in the state for five years, which seems to point to the new governor’s plan to bring in an outsider to address Guanajuato’s crime crisis.
“With the situation we’re in, where only 3% of crimes are solved in Guanjauato, let them bring in whoever they want … they can bring in [Rudy] Giuliani,” said state congresswoman Yulma Rocha after the bill passed. Rudy hasn’t been disbarred in Mexico yet, right?
Even bringing in Batman to run the prosecutor’s office wouldn’t change the stubborn challenges faced by Guanajuato as ground zero in a battle between the Santa Rosa de Lima Cartel and the formidable Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) for lucrative business in narcomenudeo (small-scale drug dealing), fuel theft (huachicoleo) and extortion rackets. Salamanca is home to a Pemex refinery and the oil pipeline that traverses the state has been a frequent target for illegal tapping. Last month, authorities found 20,000 liters of stolen gasoline and two illegal taps in Pénjamo, along the Salamanca-Guadalajara pipeline.
The state is also afflicted with an addiction crisis—outgoing security secretary Cabeza de Vaca said earlier this year that 600,000 people in Guanajuato are addicts or “probable” addicts. It’s hard to pin down this data, but if true, that is a staggering figure. The state has an estimated 262 anexos or unregulated addiction centers, like the one attacked in Salamanca a few weeks ago, that operate in the shadows and “treat” the most marginalized, who are often involuntarily sent (and kept) there by family members.
Guanajuato is indeed the heart of Mexico, holding equal parts beauty and suffering. As the song goes:
Bonito León, Guanajuato
La feria con su jugada
Allí se apuesta la vida
Y se respeta al que gana
Allá en mi León, Guanajuato
La vida no vale nada
Will Mexico be home to the largest “superchip” factory on the planet?
There were a lot of superlatives shouting from news stories about the Oct. 8 announcement by Taiwanese electronics manufacturing giant Foxconn that it has plans to build the “largest GB200 [superchip] production facility on the planet” in Guadalajara. Foxconn said the new factory will produce the chips that power Nvidia’s Blackwell computing platform, which is in “awfully huge” demand, according to a Foxconn senior VP, as the rise of artificial intelligence continues. Foxconn already has a plant in Ciudad Juárez that is expanding to produce more AI servers.
No investment amount for the new Guadalajara plant has been announced—though Foxconn chariman Young Liu said its capacity will be “very, very enormous”—but it could accelerate Mexico’s nearshoring aspirations if Foxconn breaks Jalisco ground soon. The outgoing governor, Enrique Alfaro, said this latest investment news proves his state is “the land of semiconductors.” Intel, Micron and Bosch also have manufacturing plants in Jalisco.
The manufacturing process for microchips is both expensive and intensive, and in the front-end fabrication process, it requires a lot of energy and water (a single “fab” can consume the equivalent water as tens of thousands of homes). The back-end process involves testing and packaging, which is the part that is seen as a key opportunity for Mexico. No details on the production processes at the new Foxconn facility have been released yet.
Semiconductors are the building blocks of 20th and 21st-century technological advances and they are hidden in plain sight everywhere you look: in your car, your computer, your phone, your refrigerator, your modem. Superchips are advanced semiconductor chips designed for high-performance computing tasks—asking a chatbot to explain semiconductors and superchips, for example. The global semiconductor industry is projected to be worth US $1 trillion by 2030.
Headline-making announcements from major foreign companies do not always play out as expected (for example, the planned Tesla gigafactory in Nuevo León that is currently on pause). It’s too early to tell if Foxconn will bear fruit, but it may be an even bigger feat for Mexican industry if it does.
Mexico’s narco New York courtroom drama
On Wednesday, Mexico’s ex-public security secretary Genaro García Luna was (finally) sentenced to 460 months, or 38 years, in prison, after multiple postponed court dates at a U.S. district court in Brooklyn. Prosecutors had sought a life sentence for García Luna, who was convicted in February 2023 of receiving bribes and conspiring with drug traffickers while serving as President Felipe Calderón’s security chief and one of the masterminds of the “guerra contra el narco.” He is the highest-ranking Mexican official to be tried in a U.S. court to date.
His sentence was handed down by the same judge, Brian M. Cogan, who also presided over the trial and conviction of Sinaloa Cartel founder Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán. Cogan said García Luna had the “same kind of thuggishness” as the notorious trafficker. “I have seen people like you, who work for the government and lead a double life, who appear to be … good people, while facilitating the drug traffickers’ business,” said Cogan.
On Friday, El Chapo’s former partner and Sinaloa Cartel legend, 76-year-old Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada, appeared for a hearing in the same court (yes, before Judge Cogan). He faces 17 felony charges, and prosecutors say they may seek the death penalty, which would be unprecedented in the history of U.S. prosecution of Mexican kingpins since most have been extradited under the condition they would not face execution.
Zambada’s arrest near El Paso in July is still the subject of speculation (just last week President Sheinbaum said the U.S. has yet to provide a full report on what happened), and the fallout of his apparent betrayal by one of El Chapo’s sons has led to a frenzy of violence in Sinaloa. As noted by journalist Stephanie Henaro in a column titled “Is justice American [gringa] and violence Mexican?”:
“Everything seems to indicate that what we live through here [in Mexico] is the product of ‘U.S. justice’ and ‘Mexican injustice.’ Since the two leaders of the Sinaloa Cartel were detained or turned over to the authorities of our northern neighbor, the power vacuum has generated chaos, leaving the citizens of one of the most beautiful states in the country terrified.”
But what is the real impact of these U.S. legal victories against the Sinaloa Cartel, aside from bloody blowback south of the border? Do they serve as a deterrent?
According to Eunice Rendón, a security analyst quoted by InSight Crime, “I don’t think it’s necessarily an inhibitor for corruption on the Mexican side,” adding that “there has always been a distrust of U.S. agencies … in matters of security.” After all, García Luna worked closely with the DEA and other U.S. agencies during his career, and in fact received awards for his efforts.
Outside the courtroom, people held up signs saying “Calderón is next” and the ex-president took to X to again deny any knowledge of García Luna’s crimes.
“I never had verifiable evidence of his involvement in illicit activities,” he wrote. “My security policy had successes and mistakes … but I would do it [confront organized crime] again because it’s the right thing to do.”
Thank you for reading and if you have any comments, questions or suggestions, please email me at hola@themexpatriate.com.
Excellent commentary on highly pertinent and important topics and issues. Thank you.