The Mexpat Interview: Ioan Grillo
What's next for crime and security policy in Mexico with Trump 2.0?
Welcome to The Mexpat Interview and my inaugural newsletter of 2025.
To discuss what’s on the horizon for Mexico in Trump’s second term when it comes to security policy, I reached out to Ioan Grillo, a journalist and author who has been writing about the drug war in Mexico and in the U.S. for over twenty years.
Since our conversation, Trump made headlines with his reiterated promise to designate Mexican cartels as foreign terrorist organizations (joining the likes of ISIS and Boko Haram). Sheinbaum responded firmly that Mexico will not “subordinate” itself, but will “collaborate” with the U.S., and a senior official at the Mexican embassy said the designation would be a “strategic error” since organized crime seeks “profit, not ideology.”
The two leaders seem to be finding a rhythm, albeit an awkward one—Trump is characteristically brash, but also described Sheinbaum as a “lovely woman,” and for her part, Sheinbaum has tried to have a cooling effect on the fallout from Trump’s heated rhetoric. She pointed out that Trump didn’t specifically mention a U.S. intervention in Mexico in his speech, advising not “to get caught up on these issues and simply listen to what he [Trump] is actually saying.”
Meanwhile, a Reforma newspaper poll last week showed 46% of respondents are in favor of the U.S. helping combat drug cartels in Mexico, and some PAN politicians seem open to Trump’s plan—strident PAN Senator Lilly Téllez accused Sheinbaum of being a “spokesperson” for the cartels by refuting the idea of U.S. intervention in Mexico.
As you’ll learn below, the idea of designating cartels as terrorist organizations isn’t new—and it has more complex ramifications than the Trump administration may actually want to take on. We also discussed the recent historic fentanyl bust in Sinaloa, the differences so far between Sheinbaum and AMLO on security strategy, and whether there is hope for Mexico in reducing illegal weapons trafficking from the north.
Rolling Stone reported in November that Trump’s team had floated the idea of a “soft invasion” of Mexico, which of course Claudia Sheinbaum vehemently protested. But violating Mexico's sovereignty isn't new—the latest example being U.S. law enforcement's possible involvement in the operation to kidnap Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada. What do you think will be the key differentiator between Trump and Biden when it comes to pursuing cartel leaders in Mexico?
IG: This is an idea that’s been rumbling around for awhile in the United States in Republican circles, among some in the security establishment and lawmakers like Dan Crenshaw. Basically, the idea is these cartels pose a massive threat to the U.S. in terms of fentanyl trafficking, and in terms of killing Americans in Mexico. For instance, the Mormon family murdered in Sonora, the U.S. citizens who crossed over into Matamoros, and there was another incident just recently in Michoacán. So there’s concern about the cartel situation, about high levels of violence, the border, drugs—it all gets put together with this idea of the U.S. taking more hardline military action.
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