When it rains, it pours
Catching up on the year of July
Welcome to a news roundup edition of The Mexpatriate.
Unless you happened to be in a coma for the last month, you should know there’s been far too much news to wrangle into a roundup. And it keeps coming.
Aside from the U.S. election season bombshells, there was the capture (or surrender?) of two top Mexican narcos, the fallout from Venezuela’s elections, Sheinbaum’s cabinet picks, a new (but not really) report from AMLO on the Ayotzinapa case, the murder of a business leaders in Matamoros and of a top cop in Mexico City. There also wasn’t an earthquake last Friday morning, though the Mexico City seismic alert system accidentally sounded during preparations for the annual September earthquake drill. This is almost a drill, chilangos!
Oh, and did you hear the sharks are on cocaine?
In the face of an overwhelming number of conversation starters, let’s start with what we all inevitably talk about anyway: the weather.
The rain dances and chicken sacrifices worked—Mexico had its wettest June since 1941 and July also surpassed rainfall averages. From mid-June to July 31, drought declined from affecting 73.9% to 40.13% of national territory. The impact of extended drought is still being felt, however—agriculture has been hit hard, and has been blamed for rising inflation as fruit and vegetable prices have spiked over 25% compared to last July.
But the reservoirs are filling, the landscape is greening and drought disaster seems to be averted. Unless you live near this giant sinkhole that opened up in Guadalajara on July 25 following heavy rains.
Last week, the national conversation turned to the Olympics of course, also known as the zeitgeist Games, which in 2024 have unsurprisingly been marked by debates about gender, drag queens and who is most offensive (or offended).
As of Sunday, Mexican athletes had won three medals (two silver, one bronze) and are set to earn a fourth with Marco Verde’s advance in boxing. The previous Olympic medal-winners on the women’s archery team won the first medal for Mexico in Paris, followed by surprise wins in judo and synchronized diving.
Mexico sent more women than men to the Games this year for the first time, and so far, two of the country’s three medals were won by female athletes.
Everything OK up there?
Ah, the United States…so far from God, so close to Mexico.
The near-assassination of Trump, withdrawal of Biden and succession of Kamala Harris have of course glued everyone’s attention south of the border, along with the rest of the world hooked on this season of “Game of Thrones” meets “Veep.”
So far, Mexico’s leaders have been trying to play it cool. AMLO called the attack on Trump “reprehensible” and claimed he was one of the first world leaders to condemn the assassination attempt. He also wrote Trump a letter about the border, concerned that his “friend” might be misinformed about what’s going on there. Meanwhile, a catchy Trump ballad by a Mexican musician went viral on TikTok, putting to music what the singer called a historical moment “worthy of a corrido” in an interview with CNN Español.
As far as Trump’s rival is concerned, Harris is still something of a cipher on this side of the border (wait…maybe on both). When Harris made a stop in Mexico on her first trip abroad as VP in June 2021, it seems the most newsworthy moment was a video of AMLO receiving her at the National Palace. Some thought he botched her title and name, and welcomed her as “President Kabala.”
While Trump said in a Fox News interview that he’d “absolutely” consider military action against Mexican cartels if elected, President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum hasn’t taken the bait when asked about these and other inflammatory remarks, expressing confidence in the bilateral relationship, regardless of who wins the White House.
She did, however, object to a statement by Trump about a “low I.Q. individual” at a Michigan rally—her soon-to-be Secretary of Economy Marcelo Ebrard thought Trump was referring to him, and defended himself on X. Sheinbaum too criticized the “rude” comments, but it turns out Trump was talking about Biden. Oops.
Then again, Google Translate is no match for Trump, whose exact words in reference to Mexico were:
“The gentleman representing the president … The president’s a great guy. He’s no longer president, but he’s a great guy. He was a great guy, still is … They gave us everything I wanted. I got everything from Mexico, and then this stupid person, low IQ … He’s a low IQ individual. Take his IQ. I guarantee you it’s in the low 50s or 60s. And he’s negotiating against Putin, President Xi of China, Macron of France. Very smart guy.”
The mystery of “El Mayo”
On Thursday, July 25, a small plane carrying one of Mexico’s most notorious drug trafficking kingpins, 76-year-old Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada—as well as Joaquín Guzmán López, a son of “El Chapo” Guzmán—landed in an airport near El Paso, Texas.
How the two Sinaloa Cartel leaders got on that plane, who else was on it and even where exactly it departed from is still a mystery. Both men were promptly arrested on multiple charges and have since entered not guilty pleas in courts in Chicago and El Paso. The U.S. had previously offered a US $15 million reward for information leading to Zambada’s arrest.
This explosive news first broke with initial reporting that Zambada had turned himself over to U.S. authorities. But the story has since changed many times, leaving even keen observers of Mexico’s drug trafficking underworld baffled.
The main theories that have circulated include the kidnapping of Zambada by Guzmán López (the story told by Zambada’s lawyer, Frank Perez), a negotiated surrender by both men to U.S. authorities, or a U.S.-run sting operation and capture. The one piece of information that hasn’t changed or been questioned is the lack of participation (and awareness) by the Mexican government.
There are compelling fragments of evidence and official information to support two of these theories.
In addition to Zambada’s lawyer’s claims that his client was kidnapped in Culiacán and forcibly put on a plane, reporters Ioan Grillo and Juan Alberto Cedillo spoke to a former member of Zambada’s security team (currently in prison) who backed up this story, saying that the kingpin had been lured to a meeting with Guzmán López (his godson) and a Sinaloa politician (Héctor Melesio Cuén) before he and his security team were overpowered. Cuén, a former mayor and elected federal deputy, was shot and killed in Culiacán within hours of Zambada’s arrest. Police say it was an attempted robbery that went wrong.
The government sent 200 soldiers to reinforce security in Culiacán following the arrests, but so far the area has been mostly quiet. If this was an internal rift and betrayal in the upper echelons of the Sinaloa Cartel—considered the most powerful in the Western Hemisphere—wouldn’t there be more violent fallout?
This leads us to the second theory—a Guzmán López/Zambada deal with U.S. authorities. Perhaps the lack of bloodshed is the best piece of evidence for this idea, but also, Zambada’s family has a history of cooperation with U.S. law enforcement.
At least three of his children are living freely in the U.S., and have cooperated with prosecutors. His brother, Jesús “El Rey” Zambada, testified against both “El Chapo” and Genaro García Luna in their U.S. trials. Zambada himself is known as “the negotiator” and this is often the reason given for his decades-long evasion of capture. Journalist Luis Chaparro reported he was told by one of Zambada’s grandsons that he is “very sick”—he is said to suffer from diabetes and possibly, cancer.
Today, the plot thickened. In his mañanera, AMLO said that “it appears this was an agreement between U.S. authorities and these individuals,” apparently referring to Guzmán López and his brother, Ovidio Guzmán (who is in prison in the U.S. pending trial). Secretary of Public Security Rosa Icela Rodríguez—who, as noted by digital media outlet Infobae was “visibly nervous” while speaking—also told reporters that the Guzmán brothers had made a pact for Joaquín to turn himself in, though it wasn’t clear if this meant a prior negotiation with U.S. authorities.
AMLO emphasized “this is a delicate matter” and that “we have to protect the lives of all Mexicans.”
So far, there’s no evidence that U.S. agents captured Zambada and Guzmán in Mexico and illegally smuggled them into the U.S., though the scarce official details (and memories of a prior DEA operation) have fanned flames of conspiracy. According to a statement from U.S. authorities that the Rodríguez shared last week, Guzmán López informed them of his pending arrival hours before the plane touched down; and didn’t mention bringing Zambada with him.
For now, there are still far more questions than answers; not just about the arrests, but about their impact. Will this impact the U.S. election? How will it affect bilateral security relations? Is Mexico on the verge of a violent rupture of the Sinaloa Cartel?
While all is quiet on the Sinaloan front for now, the threat of a bloody realignment of power still looms. Mexico’s other major organized crime alliance, the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), may see this as the perfect moment to strike their rivals.
Historian Benjamin T. Smith has called the “divide and conquer” strategy of drug policing, involving collaboration between law enforcement and traffickers (to get intel on other traffickers), “the drug war’s dirty little secret”—kept by criminals who don’t want to admit to being snitches, and governments who don’t want to admit to playing a role in inflaming cartel rivalries.
While it’s still unclear how the U.S. got “El Mayo,” who began his career laboring in the Sinaloa poppy fields, there is no doubt they now have access to an enviable asset with over four decades of knowledge of the inner workings of Mexico’s drug trade. As described by analyst Carlos Pérez Ricart:
“El Mayo is the individual who knows best the overlap between the state and drug trafficking in Mexico. His criminal history epitomizes its depth. He is the witness and protagonist of the gray areas between the legal and illegal markets in the country.”
If you’re curious to read more about one of the last “old guard” Mexican narcos, check out this profile on Mexico News Daily:
“El Mayo” Zambada: Who is the elusive Sinaloan trafficker arrested in Texas?”
Venezuela’s elections roil the hemisphere
Venezuela is on the brink. Since 2014, over 7.7 million Venezuelans have left their country in the biggest diaspora in the history of the Western Hemisphere. Venezuelans have been among the top nationalities of migrants attempting to cross the U.S. border in recent years, and in Mexico, Venezuelans were the single largest nationality of undocumented migrants detected by authorities from January and May this year.
After the country held much-anticipated presidential elections on July 28, reactions from outside its borders have been swift, but divided, as the chavista President Nicolás Maduro does his best to hold on to power in a country that has become a geopolitical flashpoint.
The opposition alliance candidate Edmundo González Urrutia—who replaced the candidate who won the opposition primary, María Corina Machado, but was banned from running by the Maduro government—has declared victory, as has Maduro. The Venzuelan electoral authorities announced Maduro’s third-term win before finalizing the vote count, later ratifying it with Maduro winning 51.95% and González 43.18%. The opposition review of 81.7% of ballots reported González winning by a landslide of 67%. Observers from The Carter Center issued a statement on July 30 saying the election “did not meet international standards of electoral integrity and cannot be considered democratic.”
On Friday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced that the United States officially recognized González as the winner, based on “overwhelming evidence.” Other countries that recognize González as the president include Peru and Argentina, while the leftist democracies of Mexico, Colombia and Brazil have taken a cautious approach. In their joint statement last week, they called on Venezuela’s authorities to provide transparency on the election results, but refrained from recognition of Maduro or his rival. An anonymous Mexican official confirmed to AP that the three countries are in ongoing “conversations” with Maduro and González.
Since the elections, as many as 2,000 have been arrested and 24 have died as protests broke out around the country. González and Machado issued a statement on Monday asking the Venezuelan military and security forces to switch allegiance to them, and Maduro—who counts Russia and China as allies—has only further dug in his heels.
These will be critical weeks to come, not only for Venezuela, but for Latin America.
What I’m reading
How Mexico strangled its unions: This is part one of a two-part series about the history of unions in Mexico and the effects of the USMCA, from one of my newest finds on Substack, The Mexico Political Economist. Just last week, the USMCA rapid response labor mechanism successfully resolved a petition from workers at the Volkswagen in Puebla, which is the largest automotive assembly plant in the country.
When Mexico tried a different approach to drugs—and Washington said no: This article in Americas Quarterly tells the story of a fascinating (albeit very brief) episode of drug regulation rather than prohibition in Mexico in the 1940s.
We bought everything we needed to make $3 million worth of fentanyl. All it took was $3,600 and a web browser: Reuters published an extensive investigative report on fentanyl—and just how easy and inexpensive it is to make. My biggest takeaway? Fighting this public health scourge is a losing battle on the supply-side. On Aug. 1, the U.S. CBP made the single largest seizure of fentanyl in its history in Lukeville, Arizona: 4 million pills weighing nearly 1,000 pounds.
Los vecinos distantes de Oaxaca (“The distant neighbors of Oaxaca”): I found this long form essay (in Spanish) on gentrification published in Gatopardo magazine to be one of the most clear-eyed and nuanced I’ve read on this issue, which continues to make headlines. Just last week, the Labor Party (PT) in Oaxaca put forward a legislative initiative to cap rent increases, and Mexico City Mayor Martí Batres presented a similar measure.
Thank you for reading, and as always, feel free to send your questions, comments or complaints to hola@themexpatriate.com. And if you want to support my work, please consider a paid subscription.