Endings and beginnings
What might we see more (or less) of in Mexico this year?
Welcome to the first 2024 edition of The Mexpatriate.
Last year was marked by historic firsts in Mexico—two women presidential nominees representing the major political parties, the end of 94 years of PRI rule in México state with the election of Morena’s Delfina Gómez as governor, historic numbers of migrant arrivals, and Category 5 Hurricane Otis, the strongest-ever hurricane to hit the Pacific coast.
While 2023 was big, 2024 seems destined to be bigger.
Mexico will hold the largest election in its history on June 2, with over 19,000 political offices being contested nationwide. Presidential campaigns on both sides of the border will be influenced by an increasingly intertwined bilateral relationship; NAFTA took effect 30 years ago on Jan. 1, and in 2023, Mexico continued to edge out China and Canada as the United States’ biggest trading partner. Meanwhile, both countries face an influx of migrants: Mexico was predicted to reach 140,000 asylum applications by the end of last year, and the U.S. CBP has registered 2.48 million encounters on the southwest border in fiscal year 2023.
There are many questions for the year ahead: Who will hold executive office in Mexico and the U.S. a year from today? Will López Obrador really retire from political life? Will Mexico take advantage of nearshoring, or will nearshoring take advantage of Mexico? Will Mexico absorb more migrants as they are repelled from the U.S. border? Will Acapulco come back better?
Below I share some thoughts, in no particular order, on what we may see more and less of in Mexico in 2024, as well as my take on some of the news from last month.
If you’re interested in what else I’ve been writing, please check out my most recent columns on Mexico News Daily:
Things we may see more of in 2024
Citizens vs cartels: Perhaps the biggest crime story of December was the gruesome Dec. 8 clash between farmers (armed with machetes) and cartel members who were trying to extort them in Texcaltitlán, leaving 14 dead. The bodies of 10 suspected criminals who were killed were then set on fire by the townspeople. Since the incident, 14 people from the town have gone missing. This tragedy reveals a covert but widespread desperation experienced by Mexicans facing extortion. While this crime is nothing new, it is spreading in both scope and geography; in rural areas where law enforcement presence is meager at best, I expect we will see more flare-ups of violence. The state attorney general’s office has said they will not press charges against the farmers as they acted in “legitimate self-defense”—quite a damning failure for the rule of law.
Fentanyl: The presence of fentanyl in Mexico (not just as a black market commodity on its way to the U.S.) seems likely to be in the news more this year. There were several government shutdowns of pharmacies selling counterfeit pills in tourist hot spots Baja California and Quintana Roo last year, and a study published recently in the Harm Reduction Journal showed some party drugs (MDMA, cocaine) sampled from a music festival near Mexico City in 2022 were laced with fentanyl. In a country where a mere 26 opioid-related overdoses were recorded in 2020, it’s hard to imagine this becoming an epidemic…yet.
AI in politics: An episode involving an apparently AI-generated voice recording of the mayor of Mexico City in November could be the harbinger of political antics to come. Xóchitl Gálvez’s campaign is also using AI-generated video clips of the candidate on social media. Will we see more deepfakes (or suspected ones) appear as the campaigns heat up this year?
Growth and turmoil in the south: GDP growth in Mexico’s southern region (Campeche, Chiapas, Guerrero, Oaxaca, Quintana Roo, Tabasco, Veracruz and Yucatán) recorded 6% annual growth in the second quarter of 2023, while more industrialized central and northern states registered around 3% in the same period. This unprecedented economic expansion is led by the construction of major public infrastructure projects like the Tren Maya and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec trade corridor, with private investments in tourism and manufacturing boosting it as well. But how sustainable is it? Chiapas and Guerrero in particular both face mounting violence from criminal activity and a precarious rule of law. On Monday, the EZLN (Zapatista Army of National Liberation) marked 30 years since their uprising against the government, which brought the plight of the poor Indigenous highland communities into the world spotlight. At the time, 75% of the state’s residents lived in poverty and in 2018, that number had only inched down to 74.4%. But the 2022 data released last August showed a shift, with 67.4% registered as living in poverty—still the highest percentage nationwide. Will the needle move more in the next three decades?
Executive vs judiciary in the ring: AMLO will not go gentle into that good night, or to “La Chingada”, as his Palenque ranch and retirement destination is amusingly known. The remainder of his term seems likely to be dominated by continued wrestling with the judiciary, though he was successful in appointing a Morena ally (Lenia Batres) to the Supreme Court. One of the various constitutional reforms AMLO and Morena want to get approved in Congress (and sure to ignite furious debate) would allow citizens to elect high-ranking judges, including to the Supreme Court.
Things we may see less of in 2024
Samuel García: See below.
The PRI: The Institutional Revolutionary Party is in crisis (again). The most maligned of the trifecta PAN-PRI-PRD coalition, the PRI lost one of its key historic positions in last year’s México state election and now holds only two states: Coahuila and Durango. It hangs on as part of the opposition, but its territorial presence is diminishing. While I expect this trend to continue, I dare not predict the death of the PRI: it is akin to a fungus, a vast invisible network of connections just beneath the surface of political life. Just as fungi live on even after a mushroom is picked, so may the PRI endure, even as it loses elections.
Drought: Last year was a very dry one for Mexico, reaching a peak in September when nearly 75% of the country was experiencing some degree of drought (by Dec. 31, this had moderated to 54.8%). Forecasting the weather further than a day out (or less than a decade into climate doom) is foolhardy I know, but based on the latest data about the El Niño cycle that brought dry, hot weather to much of Mexico in 2023 (and a strong Pacific hurricane season), it seems there might be a reprieve. El Niño is predicted to continue through winter, and then transition to “neutral” during April-June, according to the most recent NOAA advisory. And if La Niña follows, then a wet summer could be in store for Mexico.
“Surprising” economic growth: If there’s anything trickier to prognosticate than the weather, it would be the economy. The performance of both the U.S. and Mexican economies in 2023 exceeded economists’ expectations, and this bodes well for 2024 though, at least in Mexico, the numbers could start to look more modest. In 2022 and even last year, annual growth statistics came in high following the pandemic slump of 2020-21, but as recovery stabilizes, the annual growth rates will likely shrink. The OECD predicts 2.5% GDP growth in Mexico this year, the IMF says 2.1%.
Digital nomads: As we approach four years since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, some of the trends it catalyzed have started to fade. Even wearing pajamas to work—or taking “remote” to mean working from another country—may be coming to an end. While workers have been reluctant to give up remote work, and many have negotiated hybrid arrangements, it seems 2024 may be the year The Office makes a comeback. Even Zoom told employees they need to make in-person appearances. In other words, the commute from Mexico City for a weekly check-in meeting in Chicago might look a bit…unsustainable.
And now for a couple significant news stories from the end of 2023:
Samuel García’s rise and stumble
The 2024 presidential campaign of Movimiento Ciudadano (MC) candidate Samuel García came and went within a few weeks in November, flaming out in a flash of fluorescent orange — making it the shortest in modern Mexican history.
García’s grandiose ambitions were either thwarted by the shady manipulations of the old guard (PAN and PRI) or dashed by his own lack of political expertise, depending on who you ask. Although he had been granted temporary leave from his governorship to run for president, García balked when the Nuevo León Congress appointed a PRI-linked adversary as interim governor. García returned from his pre-campaign tour, at first just to step back in as governor until his official leave started on Dec. 2, but then the turmoil reached crisis levels on Nov. 29 when over 100 MC supporters stormed the congressional session and tried (unsuccessfully) to prevent the appointment of interim governor Luis Enrique Orozco. On the morning of Dec. 1, Nuevo León had two governors as García officially resumed his post. Orozco resigned a few days later.
As MC decides who will replace their star candidate (likely to be announced this week), Xóchitl Gálvez and Claudia Sheinbaum remain as the only horses in the race.
The opposition PAN-PRI-PRD alliance is heaving a sigh of relief — by pressuring García’s return to his position, they have eliminated a potentially serious contender. García had little chance of winning the election, but his candidacy would almost certainly have pulled more voters from Xóchitl (PAN-PRI-PRD) than Claudia (Morena). In fact, in a poll published on Dec. 5, García’s support had already grown from 8% to 17%, and Xóchitl had dropped to 23%, with Claudia maintaining a comfortable lead (49%).
The charismatic García and his media-savvy wife Mariana Rodríguez are not easily replaced. In a comparison of the social media response to the three campaigns’ first promotional ads, published on Nov. 21, García’s video had 7.1 million views across three platforms (X, TikTok and Instagram) versus Xóchitl’s 1.4 million and Claudia’s 569,000 in the first two days. Interestingly, this is the inverse of their poll positions — social media visibility does not necessarily mean electoral viability, at least not yet.
This may be the most important lesson Samuel could learn from his brief foray into presidential politics: don’t confuse it with marketing. Wielding influence online does not equate with political power, and “likes” aren’t counted at the ballot box.
For now, García is back to governing one of the country’s most economically productive states and making TikTok videos, joining his wife in her catchy musical announcement on Dec. 3 that she will run for Monterrey mayor on the MC ticket.
“To hell with neoliberalism”
One of the hallmark policy changes of President López Obrador’s term has been the increase in the minimum wage. On Dec. 1, another 20% increase was announced for 2024, which will bring it up 182% since AMLO was sworn into office. This is credited as one of the factors driving poverty numbers in Mexico down, which the president has described as “the most important achievement” of his government. This week, he pledged constitutional reforms to ensure that annual minimum wage increases will outpace inflation, and to also raise pensions for workers.
But a higher minimum wage isn’t the only legislation under consideration that impacts Mexican workers: the Senate is (eventually) going to vote on a law to reduce the workweek to 40 hours, from 48. While Mexico is an outlier in the OECD on this, the resistance to the change has been persistent. Carlos Slim himself (an ally of AMLO’s) commented on the proposed law, saying that it’s better for people to work more hours and make more money.
While these changes are seen as progress for Mexican workers, they still face a formidable obstacle: informality. The informal economy sometimes seems like it is the economy in Mexico, particularly if you venture into poor urban neighborhoods, or rural areas. And while the IMSS reported a record number of formal employees in October, the informal segment of the workforce remains about the same as it has for years, around 50%.
This will be a major question mark for the next president of the country. Can the informal worker be better protected? How can the formal economy expand?
Thank you for being here and reading my work. I started this venture on Substack two years ago this month, and I am very excited for what 2024 will bring. Please email me at hola@themexpatriate.com with your comments, ideas, suggestions and feedback.
¡Feliz año nuevo!
Dear Kathleen Bohné
Thanks for the excellent update on what is going on in Mexico. I lived in Mexico for years and it is always close to my heart.
George Blake