Welcome to the February edition of The Mexpat Interview.
In my two previous interviews, I discussed the economic and security implications for Mexico with Trump’s return to the White House. This time, I decided to zoom out and take an aerial view of Mexico in 2025 with Fernanda Caso, a journalist, lawyer and host of the Política Dejà Vú podcast.
What echoes from the past are still reverberating in Mexican politics today? Are there reasons to be hopeful during this tense time in the U.S.-Mexico relationship?
Yesterday, Trump fired the first salvo in a new North American trade war, keeping his promise to implement 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports “because of the major threat of illegal aliens and deadly drugs killing our Citizens, including fentanyl.” The executive order also alleges an “intolerable alliance” between drug trafficking organizations and the Mexican government.
Both Mexico and Canada have confirmed they will respond with retaliatory tariffs. “We categorically reject the slander from the White House accusing the government of Mexico of having alliances with criminal organizations,” wrote President Claudia Sheinbaum in a post on X. She also proposed setting up a bilateral “working group” to address public health and security.
Meanwhile, Mexico has received 6,244 deportees from Jan. 20-28, the majority of them Mexicans, as Sheinbaum’s government has quickly built out 10 new migrant shelters in six northern states. These numbers aren’t a drastic departure from the pace of deportations before Trump took office (yet); in FY 2024 (September-October), ICE deportations reached a 10-year high.
With the era of free trade receding, the pressure of a spike in deportations and internal struggles over issues like the judicial reform, Mexico finds itself on a tightrope in this emerging new global order.
As you’ll learn below, these challenges—while daunting—are also not unique in the country’s history.