Win some, lose some
Morena struggles with another divisive reform, plus assorted 2026 predictions
Welcome to The Mexpatriate.
In today’s newsletter, we’re going to play catch up on some of the big stories carried over from 2025 into the early weeks of the new year.
Keep an eye on your inbox this Sunday for a new episode of The Mexpat Interview podcast about how synthetic opioids transformed the drug war.
New Year’s Resolutions Reforms: Getting the ruling party’s upcoming electoral reform bill through Congress won’t just be a challenge—it’s more like playing an extreme (political) sport. This time Morena isn’t only dealing with ire from the usual suspects in the opposition, but from its own coalition. Sheinbaum’s aspirations include cutting back funding for Mexican elections and political parties, and reducing the size of Congress. The National Electoral Institute (INE) has submitted its own proposals to the commission, and this week, party lawmakers met with the president to discuss modifications. While a draft bill is pending as Morena wrangles with the Green Party (PVEM) and Labor Party (PT), lawmakers from the PAN and PRI have already dubbed the proposed reform the “Maduro Law” and warn of dire consequences for Mexican democracy if it passes. If Morena does succeed in negotiations with its allies, the bill could be voted on next month. *More from The Mexpat: The rules of the game
Plan México turns one: Sheinbaum presented her ambitious industrial policy for the sexenio last January, and after a year of unrelenting uncertainty, the economy is struggling to meet the plan’s goals, particularly for growth and investment as a percentage of GDP. While the forecast for economic growth is slightly better for 2026, investors will be cautious until the fate of the trilateral trade agreement is decided this summer. *More from The Mexpat: The visible hand
Murder metrics: Government data shows a 40% drop in homicides in Mexico in 2025, bringing the per capita rate nationwide (17.5 murders per 100,000) to its lowest level in a decade. Guanajuato was again the state that registered the most homicides last year, and Yucatán reported the least. While there are some questions about the accuracy of official statistics, Sheinbaum’s replication of her CDMX security team and strategy does seem to be paying off. In addition to increased intelligence, federal coordination with state governments has also been stepped up. *More from The Mexpat: Too good to be true?
Free speech fumble: Last year, worries about censorship started to gain traction in the national conversation with a new federal telecommunications law (that was postponed) and also with some brazen attempts by state and municipal-level politicians to shut down critics. A public TV station decided not to air an interview of far-right political figure Eduardo Verástegui by journalist Sabina Berman this week, in a textbook example of amplifying a voice by trying to silence it. The acrobatic explanation for this free speech violation involved defending the audience from promotion of “political ideas contrary to the fundamental rights of women and other vulnerable groups.” Berman, who is hardly a Verástegui sympathizer, directed people to her YouTube channel instead, where the video was taken down three times (it has since been restored). And of course, Verástegui—who also posted a video to his social media accounts expressing his outrage—is now very much trending. *More from The Mexpat: Is free speech under threat in Mexico?
And now, for round two of my eclectic 2026 predictions for Mexico.
ICYMI, here you can read my list of what we might see more of this year.
5 things we’ll see less of in 2026
Cash: This one might seem like a long shot since cash is still king in Mexico—used in 76% of transactions over 500 pesos and 85% of smaller ones nationwide. But the Sheinbaum administration is actively promoting more digitalization and financial inclusion to better trace potential illicit activity (and collect tax revenue), and the accelerating adoption of digital fintech products in the country is already well underway.
Migrants on the move: Since Trump effectively closed the southern border after taking office, Mexican authorities have recorded an 87% drop in migrant detentions, and arrests by the U.S. CBP at the border went from over 2.1 million in 2024 to 443,000 in 2025. There’s nothing to indicate this steep decline will reverse this year. Remittances to Mexico also saw year-over-year declines in 2025 and analysts forecast they will drop further this year. Surprisingly, only 145,537 Mexicans were deported from the U.S. in 2025, compared to 206,233 in 2024. Meanwhile, thousands of migrants have remained in Mexico, often in legal limbo.
Chinese car sales: This is a definite maybe. Mexico’s new increased tariff on Chinese-made vehicles (50%) that went into effect on Jan. 1 certainly aims to slow down their explosive growth and protect the domestic automotive industry, but it’s difficult to predict how much impact it will have. China’s global trade surplus continued its inexorable rise last year, even with the slump in exports to the U.S. under Trump. Last year Chinese brands accounted for approximately 15% of new car sales in Mexico—an astonishing rise from not even 1% of the market in 2020.
Data privacy: It may be hard to fathom having any less data privacy than we do now (much of it voluntarily surrendered). But in Mexico, concerns about privacy and data integrity are mounting as the government rolls out the new biometric CURP and obligatory registration of biometric ID data for all mobile phone lines. Sheinbaum’s government insists this is necessary to modernize the country’s bureaucracy and facilitate criminal investigations (particularly in cases of extortion and disappearances).
Rancor with Spain: Last October, the recently cold diplomatic relations between Mexico and Spain started to warm up with one Spanish diplomat’s eloquent acknowledgement of the “pain” of the Conquest. The U.S. military action in Venezuela could further push a rapprochement between the countries’ current leftist governments—there’s nothing like a shared enemy to fortify a friendship.
Questions, comments or tips? Please reach out to me at hola@themexpatriate.com. And if you want full access to The Mexpatriate, please upgrade your subscription below.